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cousin_it comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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The negation of "a Singularity will occur" is not "everything will stay the same", it's "a Singularity as you describe it probably won't occur". I've no idea why you (and Eliezer elsewhere in the thread) are making this obviously wrong argument.
Perhaps I was simply unclear. Both my immediately prior comment and its grandparent were arguing only that there should be a nonzero expectation of a technological Singularity, even from a reference class standpoint.
The reference class of predictions about the Singularity can, as I showed in the grandparent, include a wide variety of predictions about major changes in the human condition. The complement or negation of that reference class is a class of predictions that things will remain largely the same, technologically.
Often, when people appear to be making an obviously wrong argument in this forum, it's a matter of communication rather than massive logic failure.