One of the most useful techniques of rationality is taking the outside view, also known as reference class forecasting. Instead of thinking too hard about particulars of a given situation and taking a guess which will invariably turned out to be highly biased, one looks at outcomes of situations which are similar in some essential way.
Figuring out correct reference class might sometimes be difficult, but even then it's far more reliable than trying to guess while ignoring the evidence of similar cases. Now in some situations we have precise enough data that inside view might give correct answer - but for almost all such cases I'd expect outside view to be as usable and not far away in correctness.
Something that keeps puzzling me is persistence of certain beliefs on lesswrong. Like belief in effectiveness of cryonics - reference class of things promising eternal (or very long) life is huge and has consistent 0% success rate. Reference class of predictions based on technology which isn't even remotely here has perhaps non-zero but still ridiculously tiny success rate. I cannot think of any reference class in which cryonics does well. Likewise belief in singularity - reference class of beliefs in coming of a new world, be it good or evil, is huge and with consistent 0% success rate. Reference class of beliefs in almost omnipotent good or evil beings has consistent 0% success rate.
And many fellow rationalists not only believe that chances of cryonics or singularity or AI are far from negligible levels indicated by the outside view, they consider them highly likely or even nearly certain!
There are a few ways how this situation can be resolved:
- Biting the outside view bullet like me, and assigning very low probability to them.
- Finding a convincing reference class in which cryonics, singularity, superhuman AI etc. are highly probable - I invite you to try in comments, but I doubt this will lead anywhere.
- Or is there a class of situations for which the outside view is consistently and spectacularly wrong; data is not good enough for precise predictions; and yet we somehow think we can predict them reliably?
How do you reconcile them?
Dude, I got no problem with your Historian's Perspective. There have been lots and lots of changes throughout history and if you feel like coining some particular set of them "THE SINGULARITY", then feel free to do so. But this aint your big brother's Singularity, it's just some boring ole "and things were never the same again..." yadda yadda yadda - which can be said for about three dozen events since the invention of (man-made) fire.
The Singularity of which sci-fi kids have raved for the past fifteen years used to be something that had nothing in common with any of those Big Ole events. It wasn't a Game Changer like the election of the first black president or the new season of Lost, it was something so ineffable that the mind boggled at attempting to describe its ineffability.
You want to redefine THE SINGULARITY into something smaller and more human scale that's fine and if your parlance catches on then we'll all probably agree that yeah, the singularity will happen (or is happening or maybe even has happened) but you'll be engaging in the same sort of linguistic trickery that every "serious" theologian has since Boruch Spinoza became Benedict and started demanding that "of course God exists, can't you see the beauty of nature? (or of genius? or of love? or of the Higgs Boson particle?) THAT'S God"
Maybe. But it aint Moses' or Mohammed's God. And your singularity aint the one of ten years back but rather the manifestation of some fealty to the word Singularity and thus deciding that something must be it... why not the evolution that occurs within a hundred years of globalization? or the state of human beings having living with the internet as a window in their glasses? or designer babies? The historian of 2100 will have so many Singularities to choose from!
mnuez
I think you miss my point.
And things were never the same again has a pretty broad range, from a barely noticeable daily event to an event in which all life ends (and not just as we know it)
I am expecting the changes that have already begun to culminate, to do so in or around 2030 to 2050, and do so in a way that not only would a person of today not recognize life at that time, but that he would not even recognize what will be LIFE (as in, he will not know what is alive or not). Yet, this still falls under the umbra of And things were never the same again
M... (read more)