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Zack_M_Davis comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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Can we really do no better than to predict that no perpetual motion machine will ever be built because no perpetual motion machine ever has been?
But the fact that no perpetual motion machine has been built is not the reason we believe the feat to be impossible. We have independent, well-understood reasons for thinking the feat impossible.
As Robin Hanson has pointed out, thermodynamics is not well understood at all.
Conservation of energy is more basic than thermodynamics.