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wedrifid comments on Back of the envelope calculations around the singularity. - Less Wrong
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Comments (24)
Downvoted for misuse of 'the outside view'. Choosing a particular outside view on a topic which the poster alegedly 'knows nothing about' would be 'pulling a superficial similarity out of his arse'.
Replace the 'outside view' reference with the far more relevant reference to 'expert consensus'.
The whole point of the outside view is that "pulling a superficial similarity out of your arse" often works better than delving into complicated object-level arguments. At least a superficial similarity is more entangled with reality, more objective, than that 80% number I made up in the shower. If you want to delude yourself, it's easier to do with long chains of reasoning than with surface similarities.