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wedrifid comments on Back of the envelope calculations around the singularity. - Less Wrong
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Comments (24)
Downvoted for pulling numbers out of your ass and going entirely against the outside view about something you know nothing about.
Statements like "Probability that AI will kill us = 80%" are entirely devoid of content.
Downvoted for misuse of 'the outside view'. Choosing a particular outside view on a topic which the poster alegedly 'knows nothing about' would be 'pulling a superficial similarity out of his arse'.
Replace the 'outside view' reference with the far more relevant reference to 'expert consensus'.
The whole point of the outside view is that "pulling a superficial similarity out of your arse" often works better than delving into complicated object-level arguments. At least a superficial similarity is more entangled with reality, more objective, than that 80% number I made up in the shower. If you want to delude yourself, it's easier to do with long chains of reasoning than with surface similarities.