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whpearson comments on Back of the envelope calculations around the singularity. - Less Wrong
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It was based on the talk of Anna Salamon that I linked to originally. It is required watching to understand what I was going on about.
7% was the chance that she calculated that the current work done by the SIAI would save the world. Based on multiplying out all the possibilities given above of AI, AI destroying the world, humans will do something to guard against it etc.
The 20% was the chance that we were in world 1, that is clean AI is possible, which I stated earlier. So in total that is what I back of the enveloped the chance helping SIAI would help save humanity (ignoring the negative factor if we are in world 2).
I have a ton of posts that I don't post, because I never get them up to scratch. This should have been one of those.