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timtyler comments on Back of the envelope calculations around the singularity. - Less Wrong
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The "Probability that AI will kill us = 80%" is not a figure the poster pulled out of their ass. It is Anna Salmon's figure from her talk: "Probability that AI without safeguards will kill us = 80%"- and the poster attributed it to her.
Anna Salmon may well have pulled the figure out of her ass - but that seems like a different issue.