take a log-normal prior for when AI at the human level will be developed, with t_0 at 1956. Choose the remaining two parameters to line up with the stated beliefs of the first AI researchers - i.e. they expected human level AI to not have occurred within a year, but they seem to have assigned significant probability to it happening by 1970. Then update that prior on the fact that, in 2010, we still have no human level AI.
This "outside view" model takes into account the evidence provided by the failure of the past 64 years of AI, and I think it is a reasonable model.
Thanks, that was indeed interesting.
Now, the only point I do not understand yet is how the expectations of the original AI researchers are a factor in this. Do you have some reason to believe that their expectations were too optimistic by a factor of about 10 (1970 vs 2100) rather than some other number?
In this video, Julian Savulescu from the Uehiro centre for Practical Ethics argues that human beings are "Unfit for the future" - that radical technological advance, liberal democracy and human nature will combine to make the 21st century the century of global catastropes, perpetrated by terrorists and psychopaths, with tools such as engineered viruses. He goes on to argue that enhanced intelligence and a reduced urge to violence and defection in large commons problems could be achieved using science, and may be a way out for humanity.
Skip to 1:30 to avoid the tedious introduction
Genetically enhance humanity or face extinction - PART 1 from Ethics of the New Biosciences on Vimeo.
Genetically enhance humanity or face extinction - PART 2 from Ethics of the New Biosciences on Vimeo.
Well, I have already said something rather like this. Perhaps this really is a good idea, more important, even, than coding a friendly AI? AI timelines where super-smart AI doesn't get invented until 2060+ would leave enough room for human intelligence enhancement to happen and have an effect. When I collected some SIAI volunteers' opinions on this, most thought that there was a very significant chance that super-smart AI will arrive sooner than that, though.
A large portion of the video consists of pointing out the very strong scientific case that our behavior is a result of the way our brains are structured, and that this means that changes in our behavior are the result of changes in the way our brains are wired.