ideclarecrockerrules comments on Dennett's "Consciousness Explained": Prelude - Less Wrong

12 Post author: PhilGoetz 10 January 2010 07:31AM

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Comment author: ideclarecrockerrules 10 January 2010 07:21:28PM 0 points [-]

I too would generally regard observations of black ravens as being weak evidence that all ravens are black.

Weak evidence, but evidence nonetheless. I read the essay again, and it appears that what the author means is that there exists a case where observing a black raven is not evidence that all ravens are black; the case he specified is one where the raven is picked from a population already known to be consisting of black ravens only. In some sense, he is correct. Then again, this is not a new observation.

He does present a case where observing a red haring constitutes weak probabilistic evidence that all ravens are black.

So, my disagreement comes from my misinterpretation of the word "may".