DonGeddis comments on The things we know that we know ain't so - Less Wrong

16 Post author: PhilGoetz 11 January 2010 09:59PM

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Comment author: DonGeddis 13 January 2010 12:21:13AM 3 points [-]

It's true that climate is too complex to predict well. Still, I haven't heard many global warming worriers warn about the threat of a new ice age. It's all about the world actually becoming warmer.

Given that, the real problem seems to be the speed. If it took 1000 years to raise 5 degrees, that might not be so bad. If it's 50 years, the necessary adjustments (to both humans and non-humans) might only happen with massive die-off.

But leaving aside the speed, it's not insane to notice that there is vastly more biodiversity in the tropics, than in the arctic. If you were designing a planet for humans to live on, a little warmer is a whole lot better than a little colder.

This doesn't mean that global warming is "good". But you shouldn't dismiss the positive changes out of hand, when evaluating the future pros and cons.

Comment author: roland 13 January 2010 01:09:06AM 2 points [-]

But leaving aside the speed, it's not insane to notice that there is vastly more biodiversity in the tropics, than in the arctic. If you were designing a planet for humans to live on, a little warmer is a whole lot better than a little colder.

You are operating under the assumption that warmer implies more tropics. I categorize this as wishful thinking.

Comment author: Jack 13 January 2010 12:27:26AM 1 point [-]

Still, I haven't heard many global warming worriers warn about the threat of a new ice age.

Then you aren't listening enough, I'm afraid. This is a routine concern.

Comment author: roland 13 January 2010 01:11:41AM 1 point [-]

Right. And the problem is not only the concerns we have but those we don't have. The unknown unknowns. The climate system is so complex that no one can predict the outcome of further warming. What we know is scary enough to be worried.