Vladimir_Nesov comments on That Magical Click - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 January 2010 04:35PM

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Comment author: denisbider 25 January 2010 03:13:23PM 1 point [-]

I agree, cryonics is failing to "click" with me for largely the same reason - that the estimate of me benefitting from cryonics is not 95%, but more like 5%. If the likelihood of my revival and resumption of awareness is only 5%, then it doesn't much alleviate the emotional trauma of death.

Plus, I can imagine the possibility of a harmful revival, where the mind is cloned and resumes awareness, only to become a lab experiment that gets reused tens of thousands of times.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 25 January 2010 03:50:52PM 3 points [-]

I agree, cryonics is failing to "click" with me for largely the same reason - that the estimate of me benefitting from cryonics is not 95%, but more like 5%.

Think of it as insurance, in the literal sense. When you buy e.g. insurance for your house against fire, there is only something like 0.2% chance or less that you'll benefit from the fact that you've bought insurance (you only benefit if fire happens), and 99.8% chance that you'll only lose money by paying for insurance, which is by the way not a trivial sum.

The analogy is not intuitively very salient on first sight, because "fire" may connote with "death", while actually the analogy likens "fire" to successful revival, and death is just a fact of the scenery. A cryonics contract ensures you against the risk of successful revival. If it turns out that you can be successfully revived, then you get the premium of open-ended future.

Comment author: denisbider 25 January 2010 05:28:10PM 0 points [-]

It also "insures" against the risk of a horrific revival. Plus, in order for the insurance to work, the premium would be very high right now for me to pay:

http://lesswrong.com/lw/1mh/that_magical_click/1iam