This is a side-point, perhaps, but something to take into account with assigning probabilities is that while Amanda Knox is not guilty, she is certainly a liar.

When confronting someone known to be lying during something as high stakes as a murder trial, people assign them a much higher probability of guilt, because someone that lies during a murder trial is actually more likely to have committed murder. That seems to be useful evidence when we are assigning numerical probabilities, but it was a horrific bias for the judge and jury of the case.

Edit: To orthnormal, yes, that is what I meant, thank you. I also agree that it's possible that her being a sociopath and/or not neurotypical confused the prosecutor.