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orthonormal comments on Advancing Certainty - Less Wrong
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There have been a number of posts recently on the topic of beliefs, and how fragile they can be. They would benefit A LOT by a link to Making Beliefs Pay Rent
When you say Amanda Knox either killed her roommate, or she didn't, you've moved from a universe of rational beliefs to that of human-responsibility models. It's very unclear (to me) what experience you're predicting with "killed her roomate". This confusion, not any handling of evidence or bayesean updates, explains a large divergence in estimates that people give. They're giving estimates for different experiences, not different estimates of the same experience.
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