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RobinZ comments on Advancing Certainty - Less Wrong
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What are the odds that, given that I didn't make a mistake pressing the buttons, that my electronic calculator (which appears to be in proper working order) will give a wrong answer on a basic arithmetic problem that it should be able to solve?
With all the caveats, I'd guess somewhere south of one in ten thousand. I would expect the biggest terms by far in the error rate to be:
User error.
Design fault.
Mechanical failure (e.g. solder bump fracture, display damage).
I'd like to know some estimates of probability that high-energy radiation can affect a calculation, but pretty much everything after 1 is highly unlikely.