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Zack_M_Davis comments on Advancing Certainty - Less Wrong
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I think that you've only pushed it up (down?) a level.
If I have gathered sufficiently strong evidence that the simulated Knox is not guilty, then the deception that you're suggesting would very probably amount to constructing a simulated simulated Knox, who is not guilty, and who, it would turn out, was the subject of my beliefs about Knox. My belief in her innocence would be a true belief about the simulated-squared Knox, rather than a false belief about the guilty simulated-to-the-first-power Knox.
All deception amounts to an attempt to construct a simulation by controlling the evidence that the deceived person receives. The kind of deception that we see day-to-day is far too crude to really merit the term "simulation". But the difference is one of degree. If an epistemic agent were sufficiently powerful, then deceiving it would very probably require the sort of thing that we normally think of as a simulation.
ETA: And the more powerful the agent, the more probable it is that whatever we induced it to believe is a true belief about the simulation, rather than a false belief about the "base reality" (except for its belief that it's not in a simulation, of course).
That is a fascinating counterargument that I'm not sure what to make of yet.
Here's how I see the whole issue, after some more reflection:
Imagine a hypothetical universe with more than 3^^^3 total bits of information in it, which also contained a version of the Kercher murder. If you knew enough about the state of such a universe (e.g. if you were something like a Laplacian demon with respect to it), you could conceivably have on the order of 3^^^3 bits of evidence that the Amanda Knox of that universe was innocent of the crime.
Now, the possibility would still exist that you were being deceived by a yet more powerful demon. But this possibility would only bound your probability away from 0 by an amount smaller than 1/3^^^3. In your (hypothesized) state of knowledge, you would be entitled to assert a probability of 1/3^^^3 that Knox killed Kercher.
Furthermore, if a demon were deceiving you to the extent of feeding you 3^^^3 bits of "misleading" information, it would automatically be creating, within your mind, a model so complex as to almost certainly contain fully conscious versions of Knox, Kercher, and everyone else involved. In other words, it would effectively be creating an autonomous world in which Knox was innocent. Thus, while you might technically be "mistaken", in the sense that your highly complex model does not "correspond" to the external situation known to the demon, the moral force of that mistake would be undermined considerably, in view of the existence of a morally significant universe in which (the appropriate version of) Knox was indeed innocent.
When we make probability estimates, what we're really doing is measuring the information content of our model. (The more detailed our model, the more extreme our estimates should be.) Positing additional layers of reality only adds information; it cannot take information away. A sufficiently complex model might be "wrong" as a model but yet morally significant as a universe in its own right.