Technologos comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong

21 Post author: RobinZ 19 January 2010 03:36AM

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Comment author: Technologos 19 January 2010 09:01:36AM 1 point [-]

Agreed--the trick is that being wrong "only once" is deceptive. I may be wrong more than once on a one-in-forty-million chance. But I may also be wrong zero times in 100 million tries, on a problem as frequent and well-understood as the lottery, and I'm hesitant to say that any reading problems I may have would bias the test toward more lucrative mistakes.