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Technologos comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong
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Why, when you consider the case where you calculated the odds of winning the lottery incorrectly, do you increase rather than decrease the odds?
In any case, with a lottery, you do know the odds of winning; they're stated on the ticket.
Agreed--the trick is that being wrong "only once" is deceptive. I may be wrong more than once on a one-in-forty-million chance. But I may also be wrong zero times in 100 million tries, on a problem as frequent and well-understood as the lottery, and I'm hesitant to say that any reading problems I may have would bias the test toward more lucrative mistakes.