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Toby_Ord comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong
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You may wish to check out the paper we wrote at the FHI on the problem of taking into account mistakes in one's own argument. The mathematical result is the same as the one here, but the proof is more compelling. Also, we demonstrate that when applied to the LHC, the result is very different to the above analysis.
http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/4020/probing-the-improbable.pdf
I haven't read the paper through, but the similarity in algebra cannot be denied. I have added a reference to the post.
Thanks, interesting read. Could you expand more on the points of similarity and difference between your argument and RobinZ's? They currently seem very disparate approaches to me.