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ChristianKl comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong
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Comments (37)
You somehow make an assumption that making a fault of calculating the utility of the lottery ticket to low is more likely than making a fault of calculating it to high.
In principle those two sorts of possible errors should balance each other out.
I make no such point. If you read the post, nowhere do I assume any specific relation between [p(L)*j - t] and e - my point is specifically that you should use something with no dependence on your calculation (and strictly more reliable) to draw conclusions from when you're not sure.