LucasSloan comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong

21 Post author: RobinZ 19 January 2010 03:36AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (37)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: LucasSloan 20 January 2010 01:37:16AM 1 point [-]

Your odds of winning once go up as you increase the number of tickets you buy (# of tickets purchased * Chance of winning per ticket). The expected value of a given ticket remains the same. All you are doing is focusing more money away from other possibilities. If you buy 5 tickets a week for your entire life, and the odds of winning are 1 in 100 million, then you have a 0.000169 chance of winning the lottery, but you could have spent your 16 thousand on a new TV or a vacation.

Comment author: orthonormal 20 January 2010 01:42:54AM *  1 point [-]

It comes out to about the right number in this case, but your math is wrong. The expected number of times you win in n trials at probability p equals np, but the probability of winning at least once is slightly less at 1-(1-p)^n.

Comment author: LucasSloan 20 January 2010 01:45:06AM 1 point [-]

Yes, thanks for the correction.