bgrah449 comments on Winning the Unwinnable - Less Wrong
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Some friends of mine and I tried a small version of this and bet on several hundred superfecta combinations for the Belmont this last year, when everyone was wondering if Calvin Borel would win riding Mine that Bird again. We did hit the superfecta, but unfortunately the payout for the combination that won was only $800 for a $2 ticket; the final winnings per person were about 1.7x our original "investment," not as much as you would think for hitting the superfecta.