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CronoDAS comments on Winning the Unwinnable - Less Wrong
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Comments (51)
Indeed, rollover jackpots can raise the expected value of a ticket (in dollars) above the price of the ticket - as long as nobody else wins and makes you split the prize with them. As for buying up every possible ticket combination, that's deliberately made to be as difficult as possible.
There are also slot machines in Vegas that operate on a similar rollover principle - the more money that is put into the bank of machines, the larger the jackpot gets, and that can eventually give the machine a positive expected value for the player.
Wouldn't the expected value include such occurances?
Peter Liston, a prominent figure from MENSA in Melbourne back when I used to be a member there, used this as his primary form of revenue. (Australian slot machines not Vegas ones obviously). He objected somewhat to the term 'Professional Gambler', observing that once you do it professionally the term becomes very nearly oxymoronic. It's the only investment he makes that consistently makes money. Stockmarket investment is far less reliable than a known RNG over a significant number of rolls.
There are also some video poker machines that are beatable if you use the right strategy. (And the right strategy is usually rather counter-intuitive, as it often involves throwing away every card that can't be part of a royal flush from an otherwise promising hand, because about half your total expected payout comes from the royal flush jackpot.)
Really? What is your expected payoff? Or perhaps, what is your expected earnings per hour?
Here are some figures from http://www.gamemasteronline.com/Archive/VideoPoker/AllAmericanVideoPokerDiary-1.shtml
My understanding is that sometimes you can do better, like when a casino has special offers or promotions. You can also do something like this at online casinos, BTW, although I haven't personally tried it.
The expected value is a function of the jackpot, so it varies relative to the price of the ticket which is constant.
.... yes.
The expected value is also influenced by the number of other tickets purchased. Neglecting that would give you the wrong expected value (see CronDAS's caveat).
Rereading the comment chain I see that I was misreading your post the first time through. Sorry!