magfrump comments on Winning the Unwinnable - Less Wrong

4 Post author: JRMayne 21 January 2010 03:01AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 21 January 2010 07:07:52AM 3 points [-]

Indeed, rollover jackpots can raise the expected value of a ticket (in dollars) above the price of the ticket - as long as nobody else wins and makes you split the prize with them.

Wouldn't the expected value include such occurances?

There are also slot machines in Vegas that operate on a similar rollover principle - the more money that is put into the bank of machines, the larger the jackpot gets, and that can eventually give the machine a positive expected value for the player.

Peter Liston, a prominent figure from MENSA in Melbourne back when I used to be a member there, used this as his primary form of revenue. (Australian slot machines not Vegas ones obviously). He objected somewhat to the term 'Professional Gambler', observing that once you do it professionally the term becomes very nearly oxymoronic. It's the only investment he makes that consistently makes money. Stockmarket investment is far less reliable than a known RNG over a significant number of rolls.

Comment author: magfrump 21 January 2010 07:19:17AM 0 points [-]

The expected value is a function of the jackpot, so it varies relative to the price of the ticket which is constant.

Comment author: wedrifid 21 January 2010 07:22:57AM 0 points [-]

The expected value is a function of the jackpot, so it varies relative to the price of the ticket which is constant.

.... yes.

The expected value is also influenced by the number of other tickets purchased. Neglecting that would give you the wrong expected value (see CronDAS's caveat).

Comment author: magfrump 21 January 2010 04:39:48PM 1 point [-]

Rereading the comment chain I see that I was misreading your post the first time through. Sorry!