djcb comments on Winning the Unwinnable - Less Wrong

4 Post author: JRMayne 21 January 2010 03:01AM

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Comment author: djcb 22 January 2010 09:07:30PM *  0 points [-]

Lotteries are one clear example where many people ignore the expected value of their cough investment -- although the case presented here may be an exception.

Anyway, a very other common form of lottery is called insurance. There, as well, your expected values is negative, still, most people do get (voluntarily, and sometimes involuntarily) insurances. If you had a million houses, it would make little sense to buy fire insurance for them.

I would argue that the expected value is too limited a criterion for rationality; we'd also have to include the subjective feelings of security (insurance) or possible fortunes (lotteries).