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Kevin comments on My Fundamental Question About Omega - Less Wrong
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I think that's more of a simplifying assumption. I've seen statements of the puzzle with varying degrees of certainty in Omega's predictions (total, "almost certain", 99%, etc.).
I'm pretty sure you could use, instead of Omega, a human psychologist with a 90% track record in predicting two-boxers (and predicting if you'll use a coinflip just to tick her off). The expected value of two-boxing vs one-boxing then requires a more sophisticated calculation. But I don't think that changes the structure of the puzzle.
I think it's a good simplifying assumption, but I wonder how much of the confusion that results in philosophers deciding to one box is not understanding what a perfect predictor is. Are there any defenses of one boxing from people that believe Omega is a perfect predictor?