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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on My Fundamental Question About Omega - Less Wrong
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Then you're much more likely to be told this by Omega in the first place, for no better reason than that you were frightened enough to hand over the cash.
What do you mean by the likelihood of Omega saying something? You condition on something different from what I condition on, but I don't understand what it is. Anyway, what I wrote stands even if we explicitly state that Omega does not say anything except "I am Omega. You will soon give me 5 dollars."
He conditions on your response. It is like a simplified version of Newcombe's paradox. You choose a decision theory, then Omega tells you to give him $5 iff your decision theory is such that you will give him $5 upon being told that. If you think the way you talked in the grandparent, then you will pay up.
tut, that's correct, and I don't feel bad about your conclusion at all. We have no disagreement, although I think your terminology obscures the fact that "my chosen decision theory" can in fact be a sudden, unforeseen brain hemorrhage during my conversation with Omega. So let me simply ask:
If Omega appeared right now, and said "I am Omega. You will give me 5 dollars in one minute.", what would you actually do during that minute? (Please don't answer that this is impossible because of your chosen decision theory. You can't know your own decision theory.)
Of course you can't predict any of the strange or not so strange things that could happen to you during the time, all perfectly transparent to Omega. But that's not what I'm asking. I'm asking about your current plan.
I would try to get Omega to teach me psychology. Or just ask questions.
I would not give him anything if he would not answer.
All right, you are committed. :) At least admit that you would be frightened in the last five seconds of the minute. Does it change anything if Omega tells you in advance that it will not help you with any sort of information or goods?
I can only think about omega in far mode, so I can not predict that accurately. But I feel that I would be more curious than anything else