MrHen comments on My Fundamental Question About Omega - Less Wrong
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I need to ask: Is this post wrong? Not, is this post stupid or boring or whatever. Is it wrong?
As best as I can tell, there are a handful of objections to the post itself, but there seems to be mostly agreement in its conclusion.
The two main detractors are such:
There is also a general complaint that Omega is not being defined correctly, so I will leave Omega out of it.
So, without regard to how boring or uninteresting this is, is the following correct?
Given a perfect predictor (PP) who possesses the ability to accurately predict the outcome of any scenario:
If A = You pay PP $5 and
S = PP asks for $5
p(A|S) = p(S|A) * p(A) / (p(S|A) * p(A) + p(S|~A) * p(~A))
In addition, I add the restraint that the perfect predictor will never ask you for $5 if it doesn't predict you will give it $5 when asked. This sets p(PP asks|You don't pay) to 0, so p(S|~A) = 0.
p(A|S) = p(S|A) * p(A) / (p(S|A) * p(A) + 0 * p(~A))
p(A|S) = p(S|A) * p(A) / p(S|A) * p(A)
p(A|S) = 1
Therefore, p(You pay PP $5|PP asks for $5) is 1. The probability that you pay PP $5 given that PP just asked you for $5 is 1.
The phrasing in this comment is different than the phrasing in the original post. This is an even more simplified version of the question. Am I right?