MrHen comments on My Fundamental Question About Omega - Less Wrong

6 Post author: MrHen 10 February 2010 05:26PM

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Comment author: MrHen 15 February 2010 04:30:44PM 1 point [-]

Yes, but consider what happens when you start conditioning on the statement B="I do not intend to give Omega $5". If Omega is perfect, this is irrelevant; you will hand over the cash.

Right, when Omega is perfect, this isn't really a useful distinction. The correlation between B and A is irrelevant for the odds of p(A|O). It does get more interesting when asking:

p(A|B)
p(~A|B)
p(O|B)

These are still interesting even when Omega is perfect. If, as you suggest, we look at the relationship between A, B, and O when Omega isn't perfect, your questions are dead on in terms of what matters.