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dclayh comments on Easy Predictor Tests - Less Wrong
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Comments (66)
Personally, if I expect a comment or post to get negative karma, I don't make it. Perhaps that's too conservative on my part, but it's the case.
Voted down for reasons suggested by thomblake: it's often important to make a comment that you expect to get negative karma.
I make plenty of comments for which I expect negative karma. It's not too hard to shield unpopular views in language that will soften the karma hit, but sometimes it's better to state things plainly.
For a while, I had a rough handle on how various factors influenced the karma of a comment (like a link to a previous Lw post, or a relevant XKCD) but never crunched any numbers.
My intuition is that if you are about to make a comment for which you expect negative karma, nearly all of the time you should instead choose one of: a) send the comment in a private communication b) expand your comment with a more clear explanation of where you're coming from c) make your comment into a top-level post (or posts if the idea needs introduction) complete with your arguments and reasoning for all to learn from without the miscommunication perils of quick comments d) refrain from commenting
Sure, I'd bet there are exceptions, but making plenty of comments for which you expect negative karma? Strikes me as off. Pros: you can comment faster and more often since you don't need to thoroughly explain yourself, and since you don't need to prune as many threads. Cons: negative karma presumably means readers would rather have not read what you wrote, which is a bad sign unless maybe it's a topic that you feel will actually improve their lives even without sufficient explanation, even when after reading it they decide they wish they hadn't.
That last bit? Sure, maybe it happens, sometimes... maybe.
Not necessarily. You can, for example, make comments that you expect to improve the lives of a majority despite the displeasure of a majority.
You are not well-calibrated.
I've been mulling over asking for a data set of posts to do some stats on. I've noticed that short pithy statements can get a lot of karma, and would like to see some stats of karma vs comment length.
I suspect that short, concise posts and long, thought-out ones both get higher karma than ones that fall in between.
I tend to share your philosophy. It is also not too hard to offset karma costs by making a few extra posts.
Interestingly, I am often surprised when posts that I am expecting to be a karma sacrifice turn out not to be. As you suggest, extra time phrasing potentially unpopular views probably makes some difference. Even stating things plainly can be done elegantly.
I made a comment recently that got a lot of karma, and I must confess, I did expect it. I printed out the thread and read it all before making it to make sure it wasn't already made, and I was quite proud of it, so I was really pleased people liked it.
Voted down just to ruin your expectation of positive karma (not really).
SHA-1 of my karma prediction for this post: 4154a31be35736ebed12ba65cbcb89cabc08b375
How will I ever guess the 7-bit message behind such a secure 160-bit hash?
Nice try, but I phrased my prediction as a sentence. Granted, the search space of all sentences describing a karma prediction is smaller than the hash search space, but it's probably big enough that you won't be able to guess my prediction and spite me by voting in the opposite direction.
Damn, should have read this before I checked!
I confess I can't quite be bothered to check, but: it's not salted? oops!
0 isn't positive so I was wrong.
Yep, I was expecting that reaction. :)
You were obviously expecting the 'not really' part too!
Unfortunately your post is at +2 at the moment so it isn't worth me bothering with a downvote.
Me too. I remain as absolutely terrified of negative karma as I was when LW started. (In fact, it's possibly even worse now, since I have a reputation to uphold!)
Right now, I have a recent comment at -1, which for contextual reasons I can't delete, and it's driving me crazy.
(Yes, I know this is bad, and I shouldn't be like this. Unfortunately, I don't know how to change myself in this way.)
I'm curious why you care.
My guess: humans are naturally wired to care about what others think; that part of my brain is hugely oversized or overactive.
It's not without its advantages, but there's a tradeoff. I get a huge motivational high when something is well received, but the price I pay is near-depression when something isn't.
Unfortunately the "exchange rate" for me is bad: downvotes are worth about five to ten times what upvotes are.
This approximately matches the impact that positive and negative social exchanges have on people in general in person. (From my recollection of relevant studies read years ago.)
Plus, downvotes actually do mean more, because people don't make them nearly as frequently.
Wow, that's interesting. I might like to read about that at some point.
It isn't where I first encountered it but The No Asshole Rule: Building a Civilized Workplace and Surviving One That Isn't included a reference.
http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=impact+of+positive+and+negative+social+exchanges
;)
Also discussed in How Full is Your Bucket?