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GuySrinivasan comments on Easy Predictor Tests - Less Wrong
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I already have a simple, accurate method for predicting the karma values of my comments. Agree with EY and get positive karma, or disagree with EY and get negative karma. More generally, support status quo and get positive karma, or reject status quo and get negative karma.
A fine first-approximation, low-computation predictor! You can do better, though. For example, I'm pretty sure EY would agree that your method is simple and that it is fairly accurate (if nothing else, hopefully agreeing with EY or supporting the status quo has positive correlation with being right!). Which means your approximation predicts that your comment will get positive karma.