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Alicorn comments on Play for a Cause - Less Wrong
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As a general policy, it's probably not wise to have significant bets riding on the subjective opinion of someone aware of the bet. I would have been sorely tempted to spin my evaluation of the comment if what I said determined where some money went and I had a preference between the various options.
Good point, I do consider that bet to be an anomalous example of the class 'disagreements that can be resolved to testable predictions that can be bet on rather that rhetorised about'.