Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on "Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter - Less Wrong

49 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 February 2010 05:53AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 February 2010 11:56:37AM 16 points [-]

I honestly don't understand your objection. "Eventually" means "sometime between tomorrow and X years from now" where my probability distribution over X peaks in the 20-40 range and then starts dropping off but with a long tail because hey, gotta widen those confidence intervals.

If I knew for an absolute fact that nothing was going to happen for the next 100 years, it would still be a pretty damned urgent problem, you wouldn't want to just let things slide until we ended up in a position as awful as the one we probably occupy in real life.

I still feel shocked when I read something like this and remember how short people's time horizons are, how they live in a world that is so much tinier than known space and time, a world without a history or a future or an intergalactic civilization that bottlenecks through it. Human civilization has been around for thousands of years. Anything within the next century constitutes the last minutes of the endgame.