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arundelo comments on "Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter - Less Wrong
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Comments (93)
This is an excellent post, thank you.
An earlier comment of yours pointed out that one compensates for overconfidence not by adjusting ones probability towards 50%, but by adjusting it towards the probability that a broader reference class would give. In this instance, the game of reference class tennis seems harder to avoid.
My introduction to that idea was RobinZ's "The Prediction Hierarchy".