Tyrrell_McAllister comments on "Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter - Less Wrong

49 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 February 2010 05:53AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 February 2010 02:21:04AM 8 points [-]

I don't see how I can be described as trying to halt the conversation.

Allow me to disclaim that you usually don't. But that particular referenced post did, and taw tried it even more blatantly - to label further conversation as suspect, ill-advised, and evidence of morally nonvirtuous (giving in to pride and the temptation to show off) "inside viewing". I was frustrated with this at the time, but had too many higher-priority things to say before I could get around to describing exactly what frustrated me about it.

It's also not clear to me how you think someone should be allowed to proceed from the point where you say "My abstractions are closer to the surface than yours, so my reference class is better", or if you think you just win outright at that point. I tend to think that it's still a pretty good idea to list out the underlying events being used as alleged evidence, stripped of labels and presented as naked facts, and see how much they seem to tell us about the future event at hand, once the covering labels are gone. I think that under these circumstances the force of implication from agriculture to self-improving AI tends to sound pretty weak.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 25 February 2010 03:01:09AM *  6 points [-]

I think that we should distinguish

  1. trying to halt the conversation, from

  2. predicting that your evidence will probably be of low quality if it takes a certain form.

Robin seems to think that some of your evidence is a causal analysis of mechanisms based on poorly-grounded abstractions. Given that it's not logically rude for him to think that your abstractions are poorly grounded, it's not logically rude for him to predict that they will probably offer poor evidence, and so to predict that they will probably not change his beliefs significantly.

I'm not commenting here on whose predictions are higher-quality. I just don't think that Robin was being logically rude. If anything, he was helpfully reporting which arguments are mostly likely to sway him. Furthermore, he seems to welcome your trying to persuade him to give other arguments more weight. He probably expects that you won't succeed, but, so long as he welcomes the attempt, I don't think that he can be accused of trying to halt the conversation.

Comment author: xamdam 25 February 2010 04:13:00AM 4 points [-]

Can someone please link to the posts in question for the latecomers?

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 February 2010 05:33:30AM 7 points [-]
Comment author: Cyan 25 February 2010 04:34:49AM *  1 point [-]

Thanks to the OB/LW split, it's pretty awkward to try to find all the posts in sequence. I think Total Nano Domination is the first one*, and Total Tech Wars was Robin's reply. They went back and forth after that for a few days (you can follow along in the archives), and then restored the congenial atmosphere by jointly advocating cryonics. In fall 2009 they got into it again in a comment thread on OB.

* maybe it was prompted by Abstract/Distant Future Bias.

Comment author: wedrifid 25 February 2010 05:32:48AM *  5 points [-]

Don't neglect the surrounding context. The underlying disagreements have been echoing about all over the place in the form of "Contrarians boo vs Correct Contrarians yay!" and "here is a stupid view that can be classed as an inside view therefore inside view sucks!" vs "high status makes you stupid" and "let's play reference class tennis".

Comment author: Cyan 25 February 2010 02:10:53PM 0 points [-]

Good point. Hard to track down the links though.