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alexflint comments on "Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter - Less Wrong
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... then the data is most likely insufficient for reasoning in any other way. Reference class of smart people's predictions of the future performs extremely badly, even though they all had some real good inside view reasons for them.
I don't think they all had "good inside view reasons" if they were all, in fact, wrong!
Perhaps they thought they had good reasons, but you can't conclude from this all future "good-sounding" arguments are incorrect.