wedrifid comments on "Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter - Less Wrong

49 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 February 2010 05:53AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 February 2010 07:09:04PM 7 points [-]

Forbidding "reliance" on pain of loss of prestige isn't all that much better than forbidding "exploration" on pain of loss of prestige. People are allowed to talk about my arguments but of course not take them seriously? Whereas it's perfectly okay to rely on your "outside view" estimate? I don't think the quoted paragraph is one I can let stand no matter how you reframe it...

Comment author: wedrifid 25 February 2010 10:55:59PM 2 points [-]

I simply don't see the justification for claiming the power and glory of the Outside View at all in cases like this, let alone claiming that there exists a unique obvious reference class and you have it.

It could even be somewhat worse. Forbidden things seem to be higher status 'bad' than things that can be casually dismissed.