mattnewport comments on Debunking komponisto on Amanda Knox (long) - Less Wrong

-5 Post author: rolf_nelson 02 February 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: SilasBarta 02 February 2010 10:02:39PM 1 point [-]

I'll admit I'm a bit confused as well. I red komponisto's previous posts and agreed with him. rolf_nelson's posts seem to raise important points about the issue. I honestly don't see what justifies the severe downmodding he's getting. Could someone fill me in?

Comment author: mattnewport 02 February 2010 10:57:40PM 10 points [-]

Rolf raises a number of points that were already widely discussed (and widely dismissed) in the comments on komponisto's posts. He has not added any new information to the discussion that was not already contained in the voluminous commentary surrounding those two posts.

More importantly, he seems to have missed/ignored a fairly central point from komponisto's posts as relates to rationality (which is what we are generally here to discuss) which is that all of the physical and circumstantial evidence against Knox and Sollecito is irrelevant within a wide range of plausible weights assigned to it in light of the prior probabilities surrounding a case of this type. The reason this case is interesting as a test of rationality is that you can reach a likely-correct conclusion without examining any of the evidence discussed here in detail. You would need orders-of-magnitude more compelling evidence to outweigh the very small priors that should have been assigned to the joint guilt of Knox and Sollecito given the compelling evidence against Guede.

Comment author: komponisto 02 February 2010 11:15:06PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: SilasBarta 02 February 2010 11:06:21PM 1 point [-]

The reason this case is interesting as a test of rationality [...] compelling evidence against Guede.

That much I understand. And I did read a lot of the previous discussions. But just to take a random example, rolf_nelson brought up how DNA of random people couldn't have easily gotten onto the bra clasp, that there had to be some more direct contact. And, RS's DNA is clearly on it.

Where was that specific point already addressed in previous discussion?

Comment author: mattnewport 02 February 2010 11:42:21PM *  5 points [-]

Where was that specific point already addressed in previous discussion?

Here for one.

This CNN story covers some of the doubts around the handling of the bra and the validity of the DNA results:

Bremner says that evidence on the clasp is fundamentally flawed, like much from the crime scene collection, calling the work "Fellini forensics." "In the [crime scene] video, you can see it went from being white in color to nearly black because it got so dirty being moved around," Bremner said of the clasp, noting that tainted the only evidence that placed Sollecito at the scene.

Here's a source for the 'three unidentified individuals' DNA' claim:

The other key plank of the prosecution's DNA evidence related to a clasp severed from Meredith's bra that was found at the scene.

This was said to have Sollecito's DNA on it. But the defence has long challenged its evidential value because it was not recovered from the floor of the victim's bedroom until 47 days after the murder.

During that time, they claim, it was contaminated - an argument apparently supported by the fact that the rest of the bra did not show any such DNA traces.

That police could have missed the clasp for so long is also put forward as being indicative of the way in which the murder investigation was carried out. Video footage by detectives on November 3, 2007, two days after the murder, shows the bra clasp on the floor of Meredith's room, next to where her body was found. It had been cut from the bra she was wearing when she was attacked.

But it was not until December 18, when police revisited the crime scene, that they found the clasp at a different location in the room and finally collected it as evidence. It was then subjected to testing, which revealed microscopic traces of DNA belonging to Sollecito as well as at least three other unidentified people.

This DNA test result is central to the prosecution's case, because no other evidence links Sollecito or Knox to the room where the murder took place.

Emphasis mine. There is sufficient doubt around the DNA evidence to render it largely irrelevant in light of the prior probabilities for this kind of crime.

Comment author: SilasBarta 03 February 2010 12:09:58AM *  5 points [-]

Okay, thanks -- I wasn't sure if the rolf_nelson's claim about the three other people was the consensus at this point. I assumed he said it because he had found a good refutation of that point [1]. Confusion resolved. Disappointment with rolf_nelson's posts on this matter understood.

[1]Note: This is not a common practice of mine, but due to the factors at play for this specific discussion.

ETA: Changed phrasing to be less personal.

Comment author: wedrifid 03 February 2010 01:07:44AM 5 points [-]

Disappointment with rolf_nelson understood.

Can we say "disappointment with rolf_nelson's post"? I feel more comfortable with that.

Comment author: SilasBarta 03 February 2010 02:47:45AM *  2 points [-]

I wasn't endorsing the general dislike of rolf_nelson, just saying why I understand the hostility now. And the issue is about more than just his top level post, but the broader exchange between him and komponisto.

(And why do you insist on the underscore?)

ETA: Come on, it's a joke, people. I criticized wedrifid for simply following my usage (plus making it the possessive form), even though I use that exact form all the time. I was jokingly making it look like it's wedrifid who insists on the practice of adding underscores. Get it? Ha ha? No? Okay then...

Comment author: Zack_M_Davis 03 February 2010 03:08:45AM *  4 points [-]

(And why do you insist on the underscore?)

Who are you and what have you done with Silas??

Comment author: SilasBarta 03 February 2010 03:12:51AM *  0 points [-]

LOL! :-)

ETA: I notice that many people have since picked up the practice of referring to other users with their exact username, and replacing spaces therein with underscores. I'm not going to say it was because of me ... but I had been doing that since way back into the OB days, when no one else was ...

Comment author: wedrifid 03 February 2010 03:17:01AM *  2 points [-]

And why do you insist on the underscore?

I'm confused. I just added 's post in this instance. More generally I tend to refer to a user by either their username or their first name. Maybe a last name instead if the reference was towards a more formal academic contribution.

Comment author: SilasBarta 03 February 2010 03:30:01AM -1 points [-]

whoosh! ;-)

Comment author: PrimIntelekt 04 February 2010 04:24:44AM 1 point [-]

It's worth considering who's at fault when nobody "gets" a joke.

The purpose of humor is to entertain or communicate in some form; if a joke flops with every member of its target audience, I don't think you can blame said audience without lowering yourself to the standards of smug postmodernist writers.

Tangential: Nietzsche could conceivably be accused of this attitude, but he was really aiming to discourage lightweight thinkers from reading and misunderstanding his work. Obviously, it didn't work.

Comment author: SilasBarta 03 February 2010 04:39:58AM 0 points [-]

Updated phrasing to a happy medium.