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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong
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A question, at what probability level should you go around saying "I believe in X"?
The term "believe in" is used whenever someone else assigns a probability sufficiently higher than yours for you to take offense. For example, if someone assigns a negligible probability to hard takeoff and Robin Hanson assigns it a 10% probability, they will say that Robin Hanson believes in hard takeoff.