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Nick_Tarleton comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong
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A question, at what probability level should you go around saying "I believe in X"?
If you don't care about being honest, you should say it when it wins to do so.
If you do care about being honest, you should say it when doing so helps give the person you're communicating with an accurate estimate of your epistemic state.