brazil84 comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong

57 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 15 February 2010 07:58AM

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Comment author: brazil84 15 February 2010 07:03:00PM 1 point [-]

I basically agree with SilasBarta. If you look carefully, what's going on in climate science is absolutely apalling.

One can ask a simple probability question: Given that a climate simulation matches history, what is the probability that it will accurately predict the future?

Another question: What evidence is there that climate simulations are accurate besides the fact that they match history?

And another question: If you take 10 or 15 iffy climate simulations, average them, and then use a bootstrap or equivalent method to produce a 95% confidence interval, are you actually accomplishing anything?