Blueberry comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong

57 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 15 February 2010 07:58AM

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Comment author: Blueberry 15 February 2010 08:09:33PM 3 points [-]

I have two reference classes - one for AGWers' statements about climate which I estimate to be almost all true, and another for AGWers' statements about proper policy which I estimate to be almost all false.

I think you're exactly right, and the problem is that people are often so partisan that they don't even think of this or understand it as a possibility. Unfortunately, this problem isn't just limited to AGW. I see it in many discussions of policy questions, where people argue about which statistics are right instead of saying, "Assume these factual statements are true: what is the proper policy?"