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MichaelVassar comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong
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I reviewed this topic last May:
When Kevin Dick offered to bet me, I offered even odds that the CO2-temp correlation over the last 60yr would continue over 20yr. Kevin pointed out that this is far less than standard projections, produced by assuming positive feedback models. So the key issue is how much confidence to place in such projected strong feedback. I didn't have enough confidence in it to bet Kevin in its favor, but not sure how much I'd bet against it either.
This seems like a reasonable summary of the scientific consensus and I'm generally pretty willing to accept the factual elements of the scientific consensus. The judgment elements of the scientific consensus, such as "we should all be dedicated to cutting CO2 emissions" seem very much less reliable. It's noteworthy that people who accept the facts but not the judgments, like Dyson, are often called deniers.