Douglas_Knight comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong

57 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 15 February 2010 07:58AM

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Comment author: Morendil 16 February 2010 12:56:47AM 0 points [-]

None of the examples you give are 'catastrophic' on anything like the scale of what some prophesize for global warming.

That's because you're cherry-picking. Having the Gulf Stream stop, one of the possible consequences of Arctic Ice melt, would be very unpleasant.

In other cases the effects we're seeing are only the start of a chain of effects. The Pacific Trash Vortex is basically us dumping tiny plastic particles into our own food chain, ultimately poisoning ourselves. It's bad in itself, but the knock-on effects will be worse. Sure, it still pales in comparison to some predicted AGW effects: that's why the latter has become the more pressing issue.

These examples were direct responses to Silas, who meant to ridicule the initial instances I gave of the class bad things happening as a result of pushing too hard the parameters of systems we understand poorly, on various scales. Many of his own suggestions turn out not to be ridiculous at all, but rather serious matters.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 16 February 2010 02:19:46AM 1 point [-]

Having the Gulf Stream stop, one of the possible consequences of Arctic Ice melt, would be very unpleasant.

The Gulf Stream makes the difference between Europe and the west coast of North America, not east coasts. Maybe it would be unpleasant, but a catastrophe?

Comment author: mattnewport 16 February 2010 03:05:34AM 1 point [-]

I've heard claims that the gulf stream switching off would cause Britain to undergo a climate change that would have consequences I would call 'catastrophic', at least in the short term. Some predictions talk about average temperatures dropping by 5-8 C in a matter of months which would have severe consequences for British agriculture and would likely have a noticeable impact on GDP. I'm not sure I put much faith in those predictions however.

This would also be a catastrophe on a different scale from the more alarmist AGW predictions. We're talking about a major disruption to the British economy but not an existential threat to the human race.