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brazil84 comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong
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How thorough is your knowledge of the AGW literature, Silas? I'm only familiar with bits and pieces of it, much of it filtered through sties like Real Climate, but what I've seen suggests that climate scientists are doing better than you indicate. For instance, the paper described here includes estimates excluding tree ring data as well as estimates that include tree ring data, because of questions about the reliability of that data (and it cites a bunch of other articles that have addressed that issue). They also describe methods for calibrating and validating proxy data that I haven't tried to understand, but which seem like the sort of thing that they should be doing.
I think the narrow issue of multi-proxy studies teaches an interesting lesson to folks who like to think of things in terms of Bayesian probabilities.
I would submit that at a bare minimum, any multi-proxy study (such as the one you cite) needs to provide clear inclusion and exclusion criteria for the proxies which are used and not used.
Let's suppose that there is a universe of 300 possible temperature proxies which can be used and Michael Mann chooses 30 for his paper. If he does not explain to us how he chose those 30, then how can anyone have any confidence in his results?
I haven't read the paper myself, but here's what the infamous Steve McIntyre says: