mtobis comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong
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No. The important thing is to get away from the cliff edge that represents reglaciation. That is the catastrophe which we most urgently need to avoid. Staying near to the edge of the "reglaciation" cliff is a really bad option for humanity and the rest of the planet. That way, potentially billions may die in a reglaciation catastrophe. Safety considerations are one of the main reasons for wanting to further warm the planet up.
We should not hang around on the edge of the "reglaciation" cliff, waiting for technology to develop. Nor should we engage in ridiculous schemes intended to cool the planet down. We should just walk away from the cliff - and probably go as quickly as conveniently possible before the ground crumbles beneath our feet. The longer we dilly-dally around, the bigger our chances of going over the edge.
This does not seem very complicated to me. Reglaciation looms as a clear and present danger. We must do our very best to go in the opposite direction. We can debate how fast we can safely run, how far away is a safe distance, etc - but run we absoultely must.
The Milankovic forcing is small. Even in the unforced case we would probably miss the next trigger and have 50 Ka of peace and quiet. Now we're well past the threshhold. Find something else to worry about, please, like ocean acidification, coastal flooding, rapid regional climate shifts, and ecosystem disruption for instance.
You are assuming that Milankovitch cycles are the cause of the problem?
That is debated - due to things like:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100,000-year_problem
...and the list here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#Problems
See also some of the alternative hypotheses:
"Sun's fickle heart may leave us cold"
...and...
"A New Theory of Glacial Cycles"
Unreferenced claims that "we are well past the threshold" don't count as particularly useful evidence.
I recommend you back up such material if you want to continue this discussion.