timtyler comments on You're Entitled to Arguments, But Not (That Particular) Proof - Less Wrong
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You are assuming that Milankovitch cycles are the cause of the problem?
That is debated - due to things like:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100,000-year_problem
...and the list here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles#Problems
See also some of the alternative hypotheses:
"Sun's fickle heart may leave us cold"
...and...
"A New Theory of Glacial Cycles"
Unreferenced claims that "we are well past the threshold" don't count as particularly useful evidence.
I recommend you back up such material if you want to continue this discussion.