ciphergoth comments on Open Thread: February 2010 - Less Wrong

1 Post author: wedrifid 01 February 2010 06:09AM

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Comment author: Yvain 01 February 2010 12:39:10PM 6 points [-]

Fun sneaky confidence exercise (reasons why exercise is fun and sneaky to be revealed later):

Please reply to this comment with your probability level that the "highest" human mental functions, such as reasoning and creative thought, operate solely on a substrate of neurons in the physical brain.

Comment author: ciphergoth 01 February 2010 03:44:02PM *  6 points [-]

I'm at least +70 decibans ("99.99999%") confident that mental states supervene on to physical states. Whether your exact description to do with neurons in the brain completely captures all the physical states I'm less confident of.

EDIT: updated from 30 to 70 decibans: I would more easily be convinced that I had won the lottery than that this wasn't so.

Comment author: MichaelHoward 08 February 2010 08:04:05PM 3 points [-]

updated from 30 to 70 decibans: I would more easily be convinced that I had won the lottery than that this wasn't so.

I might be misunderstanding what you mean by 'more easily be convinced', but if the nature of the evidence we'd expect to be doing the convincing is so different in each case, I don't think we can rely on that to tell how much we believe something.

I was much less easily convinced about Many Worlds that I would be that I'd won the lottery, but beforehand I think I'd have put the odds about the same as rolling a six.