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RobinZ comments on Open Thread: February 2010 - Less Wrong
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Fun sneaky confidence exercise (reasons why exercise is fun and sneaky to be revealed later):
Please reply to this comment with your probability level that the "highest" human mental functions, such as reasoning and creative thought, operate solely on a substrate of neurons in the physical brain.
"Highest" confidence is 100%, when the brain does not implement any consideration of failure.
Next highest increment is over 99%, I suspect. Call that my guess.
Edit: I'm an idiot - ignore this response. I thought it was asking "what is the highest confidence level that the brain implements in considering the probability of a proposition", which is different and interesting.
I don't think the brain really implements proper probablistic confidence levels.
Probably not, no.