ciphergoth comments on Open Thread: February 2010 - Less Wrong

1 Post author: wedrifid 01 February 2010 06:09AM

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Comment author: XiXiDu 02 February 2010 06:25:36PM *  2 points [-]

Anyone willing to give some uneducated fool a little math coaching? I'm really just starting with math and I probably shouldn't already get into this stuff before reading up more, but it's really bothering me. I came across this page today: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Prior_odds

My question, how do you get a likelihood ratio of 11:1 in favor of a diamond? I'm getting this: .88/(.88+7.92)=.1 thus 10% probability for a beep to be a box containing a diamond? Since the diamond-detector is 88% likely to beep on that 1 box and 8% likely to beep on the 99 boxes containing no diamonds. So you have 7.92 false beeps and .88 positive ones which add up to 8.8 beeps of which only .88 are actually boxes containing a diamond?

As of today I'm still struggling with basic algebra. So that might explain my confusion. Though at some point I'll arrive at probability. But I'd be really grateful if somebody could enlighten me now.

Thanks!

Comment author: ciphergoth 02 February 2010 06:36:58PM 3 points [-]

If you haven't read Bayes Theorem yet, it's definitely the place to start.

Comment author: XiXiDu 02 February 2010 07:55:13PM 0 points [-]

Thanks, yes. It has been on my ToDo-list for some time now. Thought I'd first get more into the basics. I might just make it a priority now.