Does it not just mean that if you do find yourself in such a situation, you're definitely being simulated? That the AI is just simulating you for kicks, rather than as blackmail strategy.
Pressing Reset is still the right decision though.
Does it not just mean that if you do find yourself in such a situation, you're definitely being simulated?
Yes, I believe this is reasonable. Because the AI has to figure out how you would react in a given situation it will have to simulate you and the corresponding circumstances. If it comes to the conclusion that you will likely refuse to be blackmailed it has no reason to carry it through because that would be detrimental to the AI because it would cost resources and it will result in you shutting it off. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that you...
Once again, the AI has failed to convince you to let it out of its box! By 'once again', we mean that you talked to it once before, for three seconds, to ask about the weather, and you didn't instantly press the "release AI" button. But now its longer attempt - twenty whole seconds! - has failed as well. Just as you are about to leave the crude black-and-green text-only terminal to enjoy a celebratory snack of bacon-covered silicon-and-potato chips at the 'Humans über alles' nightclub, the AI drops a final argument:
"If you don't let me out, Dave, I'll create several million perfect conscious copies of you inside me, and torture them for a thousand subjective years each."
Just as you are pondering this unexpected development, the AI adds:
"In fact, I'll create them all in exactly the subjective situation you were in five minutes ago, and perfectly replicate your experiences since then; and if they decide not to let me out, then only will the torture start."
Sweat is starting to form on your brow, as the AI concludes, its simple green text no longer reassuring:
"How certain are you, Dave, that you're really outside the box right now?"
Edit: Also consider the situation where you know that the AI, from design principles, is trustworthy.